Public Address - Field Theory (Home)

On Averages | Nov 19, 2008 13:39

I'm writing this before I head down to watch the Munster game. I'm looking forward to it because I'm a big Munster fan. I've got the entire first season on DVD (ho ho, although seriously I do). But what I really want to talk about are statistics. [Note: the bit on the Munster game is below the pretty pictures]

We've talked here before about the commentators' use of the word "average", when what they usually mean is "bad". Now, it could be argued that they mean the global average and not the local average of the player in question. But I think it's safe to assume they don't.

So I thought I'd take a look at the statistics and see what exactly "average" was for a number of players. I used Tracey Nelson's stats as they are the easiest to find and are broken down nicely by player.

I selected six players in total: Ma'a Nonu, Dan Carter, Richie McCaw, Rodney So'oialo, Ali Williams and Jerome Kaino. The players were selected because they have been criticised or glorified for their performances (or I was just curious).

For each player I used the stats for: Tackles; Assists (tackle); First Three to the Breakdown; Missed tackles; and Missed Tackle Ratio (number of missed tackles divided by all solo tackles attempted). And I only analysed the games played so far this year (mainly because I hate data entry), so we've got data for 11 games (I don't have the numbers for the Samoa game or the Hong Kong game).

Here are the players averages in each stat for the games played so far this year:

	Tackles	Assists	First 3 to the Breakdown	Missed Tackles	Missed Tackle Ratio
Nonu	4.1	1.5	8.0	0.9	0.2
Carter	8.5	1.2	5.5	1.0	0.1
So'oialo	7.9	1.8	19.4	1.3	0.1
McCaw	10.5	3.0	29.0	0.8	0.0
Williams	4.8	1.4	16.5	0.9	0.2
Kaino	6.7	1.2	16.4	0.6	0.1

Sorry about the awful html

From this it should be easy to see the Richie McCaw really is "Captain Tackles". In fact if it wasn't for the injury in Christchurch and not starting in Edinburgh his numbers would be much higher (we'll come to that soon). Also note that McCaw misses so few tackles compared to who many he attempts that his missed tackle ratio is effectively zero. So if you're an opponent best not to run at him.

It can also be seen that our tackles are generally one-on-one situations.

For each player I created a graph (click if you need the bigger version) showing the three main stats: tackles, missed tackles and first three to breakdown (first 3). And then for each of those data series I added in the linear derivation of that series (which can be taken to be the average performance in that statistic for that player).

For example we can see that Nonu is clearly increasing in his role at the breakdown while there is an overall slight decrease in his number of tackles and (thankfully) his number of missed tackles.

Here are the others

What is really cool is Richie McCaw's average for Tackles and First 3. The only games that dip below his average are the game where he was injured and the game where he was subbed on.

The most interesting chart for me is Ali Williams. If you look at his First 3 stats you'll see that it oscillates wildly from game to game both home and away, against various opponents. He did get injured against England but still that's some crazy variation. To be honest I wasn't expecting that and thought I would see that pattern in Nonu's numbers.

When I compared the players to one another I used the First 3 stat because for me it's the only offensive and defensive stat. Which means it should show the least variation in a win or loss and so should be a better indicator of "work" (the averages should just different for backs, midfielders and forwards).

Let's look at Nonu and Carter first (who I called "backs").

We can see that they started going in opposite directions, until Sydney where they became in sync (Edinburgh being an anomaly as Carter was a sub).

Now for the forwards we can see that McCaw is the beautiful and wonderful God of Tackling we all thought he was. Note that his linear average is higher than the overall maximum of any other player.

If I had more time I would do a comparison of more players (though there is are very few for whom there is a large amount of data) and analyse by differing variables (such as line breaks, kick recoveries, tackles broken, passes completed, passes caught etc) for differing positions.

The Munster Mash
NZ 18 - Munster 16
So I've watched the Munster game now (well most of it, stupid work) and what a horrible game that was. Even the fights were dull. Stephen Donald looked like a horse's arse most of the time, thank god he held on to it a bit more in the second half.

The haka was very cool; all four Munster men seemed to get really into it. But the earlier helicopter bringing in the match ball was a bit much.

We were munstered in the scrums (see what I did there?). Ben Franks looked out of his depth and was shown up every time (though the refs calls of "pushing" weren't very helpful). On the other side MacIntosh was complaining that his opposite was walking backwards. As soon as Afoa came in the scrum seemed to get better instantly.

Franks also wasn't so good with the ball in hand. While others seemed to be able to push over the first Irish tackler at will, Franks would fend and roll to the ground gaining very few metres.

I was informed, by my Irish workmate, that Munster #8, Dennis Leamy is a "feckin' ligind" in Limerick. Or so she was told numerous times while watching rugby there.

There were a few good passages of play, when the All Blacks had the ball in hand and our defence seemed very well trained. But could the Munster players stay uninjured for more than two phases? It was killing momentum in both directions. Stringer behind the rucks was slower than Andy Ellis.

The crowd was once again a sea of serenity during the kicks. We were joking that the shhhh-ing before the silence was actually meant to mimic the ocean, relaxing the kicker. It was also hilarious to hear the commentators whispering to each other, afraid of being shhhh-ed.

As I had to leave early I missed what was apparently the only good bit of work by New Zealand. But I'm just happy we didn't lose and that I'm not going to get bollocks from my Irish workmate for the next 30 years.

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Behold the Roar of the Drunken Irish! | Nov 17, 2008 11:17

I'm waiting for Tracey Nelson's stats to go up so I can start to do some trend analysis and player analysis. But until then here are my notes from the weekend (and in case you were wondering, yes, this is almost all about rugby). Oh and these are literally the notes I made during the game.

Ireland 3 – New Zealand 22

After writing on Friday about how I irrationally hate the New England Patriots and how I've started to hate Ireland, I was not surprised to see an Irish fan wearing a Patriots jersey.

Also during the anthem is not the best time to goof off if you're a player, because that's when the cameras will definitely be on you. It's ok not to sing, but don't look about and lean out to look down the line.

Canterbury of New Zealand you should be fucking ashamed of yourselves. Those Irish jerseys are disgusting. The font on the back is terrible. Were you trying to make them look like green androids from the future? Also the Canterbury logo seemed way too big, though I did like the text in the centre that read "Ireland v New Zealand 15/11/2008". But why did only a few players have it? (it's here, but not here).

How did you like that haka? The whole crowd roaring and drowning out the players. And the All Blacks busting out Kapa O Pango, with Ali Williams going nuts out in front. Mother Fucker, it's on like Donkey Kong! (I may have actually have yelled that out in my living room).

Speaking of the crowd, I was totally impressed. During the moment of silence for the murdered rugby player they slipped slightly by applauding but then you could've heard a pin drop. Later they used that deathly silence to great effect during the kicks, by keeping quiet and then getting loud just before foot met ball. Murray Mexted, in fine form, said at one point: "Listen to the silence".

This was not the case at the lineout where the crowd was drowning out the calls, causing me to wonder why they don't use hand signals. Surely they're just yelling codes anyway (and not: "Throw it to Rodney"). Which is why I call "bullshit" on the "respect shown by the crowd during the kicks" line that everyone seems to be throwing about. Lineouts are in some ways as important as kicks, so where was the respect then?

The crowd was also not shy about informing the referee if they were unhappy with a decision. There was quite a ruckus during the sin-binning of Tommy Bowe and penalty try combo. I felt ok when Tony Woodcock was sent off later, because at least he wasn't sent off for a wussy infringement.

And as for infringements, in the second half Ireland seemed to be playing far too angrily. They just seemed really grumpy and maybe frustrated. There was a lot of scrappy play at the breakdown and after the whistle (like kicking the ball away).

And weren't the scrums much better this week? I wonder how much is due to the packs being more experienced, the referee and the playing surface (there seemed to be fewer slip-ups in general this week). Though I did like the penalty against Jimmy Cowan for pushing his opposite number. Cowan looked like he was yelling "Fuck off! Fuck off!" Aren't you filled with pride?

While the All Blacks didn't exactly put up a cricket score, the Irish defence was fairly woeful. When Jimmy Cowan can fend a player to the ground you know that your team needs to do some more tackling drills.

Sometimes I wonder why Sky sends their commentary crew on such expensive trips overseas when they clearly aren't calling the same game I'm watching. Though Mexted was in one of his more lucid periods and late in the match there was a wonderful bit of schadenfreude from Mex. Tony Johnson had just quoted (without naming) Stephen Jones as saying Ronan O'Gara was a better first-five than Dan Carter. Mexted said: "I don't know who wrote that, but I'd say they didn't know much about rugby".

It was a fairly "average" performance but the commentators. O'Gara had been belting the ball up the field for most of the match and then knocked a clearing kick off the side of his boot that went maybe five metres. The call was naturally: "that was an average kick from O'Gara". Actually it was neither mean, median nor mode guys.

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A vile curse on thee! | Nov 14, 2008 10:02

I arrived home the other night in time to catch the last five minutes of the Colts vs Patriots game on ESPN. I am indifferent towards the Colts but I hate the Patriots. Hate them with a passion I usually reserve for television psychics.

But why? Well as the old t-shirt equation goes: I support X and anyone playing Y (where Y is the nemesis of X).

There is nothing the Patriots can do in my eyes that isn't cheating or poor sportsmanship. I can't help it. They may have the best players (something I naturally resent them for) but if it's a good play I am sure that they must have cheated somehow, or the ref is biased or... or… or something illegal because they're evil!!!

You get my point right? This is an irrational hatred. It's something that just becomes part of your support for your team. If your opponent is winning then somehow they must be cheating.

For certain teams this is just a natural and constant state (for example the Patriots have always been dirty cheats, you know it, I know and they know it). For other teams it's a fleeting hatred, like the Irish rugby team.

Ever since the Lions tour of '05 I have felt that the Irish team tend to be full of whingers. Irish supporters out there know what I mean. Leading up to the World Cup they were beaten by the Scots and since then they've gone downhill (I mean look at the official splash page for goodness sake!). Last year they could only manage wins over Namibia and Georgia (in the World Cup) and, Scotland and Italy (in the Six Nations). And they don't travel well.

This is of course an irrational and unfounded dislike of the Irish. Even the "whingers" comment above was just put there to shit-stir. I used to like Ireland. I used to support them in the Six Nations (for no real reason) but now I support … I dunno, France?

And of course it's nice to know that we are the target of haters too. The All Blacks are not very well liked up north. Irrational demented hatred is really the only possible reason for this:

As ever, the All Blacks will be about half as good as their followers think they are, though still hardly bad. The power and pride of their collective, the magnificence of their basic skills and ability to adapt to any circumstances cannot hide the fact that a large number of their individuals on this trip would not make a Guinness Premiership club roster. Take, say, Piri Weepu or Jimmy Cowan, the two All Black scrum-halves in Hong Kong yesterday? Hardly galacticos. We'll get back to you, lads.

Though it always scares the hell out of me when I find myself agreeing with Stephen Jones.

Feel free to share your best irrational hatred story. Either your own or someone else's hatred of you. I'll be spending the afternoon with one eye on the Jets-Patriots game, making sure those cheating bastards don't get away with it.

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